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Research process

How we work

We gather and verify information, connect relevant facts, identify changes that warrant attention and compare their possible effects to develop evidence-based risk assessments.

  1. Capture

    Gather information from multiple sources

    Establish a fuller information base for judgment and reduce gaps caused by reliance on a single source or a partial view.

    An operator gathers news, company filings, market data, policy, and supply-chain cards at a touch console.

  2. Connect

    Map the relationships behind the signals

    Examine how external changes relate to the business and identify areas that may be affected.

    An operator connects Company A, Supplier B, and Factory C using entity, event, relationship, and timeline views.

  3. Detect

    Identify changes that warrant attention

    Distinguish routine fluctuations from changes that warrant attention and identify where an assessment may need to be revised.

    Supplier B’s shipment curve drops below its historical baseline; the orange endpoint connects to the same supplier’s anomaly card.

  4. Simulate

    Test explanations and explore consequences

    Compare potential impacts across scenarios, prepare alternatives and define the conditions for adjusting plans.

    A dashed factory-outage assumption connects to the Supplier B anomaly, which branches into separate recovery, continued-delay, and second-supplier-failure scenarios.

  5. Assess

    Assess risks and priorities for action

    Prioritize risks to inform resource allocation and subsequent action.

    An illustrative adverse scenario links supplier disruption to liquidity stress, alongside three key risks, a probability-by-impact matrix, and monitor, prepare, or mitigate actions.

The scenarios in the comics illustrate the method. Companies, events, risk ratings, and the 78% confidence figure are examples.

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